Seoul's Awful Starts

(The 2010 Champions- from vietfootball.com)

In Part I, I looked at how teams did after ten starts.  Now, I will just look at FC Seoul and how they have started and finished each season.  

As I have written before, the annual Choi Yong-soo drama is a horrendous start followed by a strong finish.  Out of it by May, somehow he still does enough to qualify for the ACL.  I cannot decide if that is good or bad.  If they gave Choi the ax, would the next coach be worse?  

So, I was curious to see how each season played out for Seoul.  I went to soccerway.com and looked at the first ten games for each season from 2011 to 2015.  From there, I made a table and split into three parts.  The left side is comprised of the results for the first ten games.  The middle part is comprised of the rest of the games for the season.  The right part, which says "End", is precisely that.  It tallies the total points a team collected and their final league position.  

(Adi wonders: Dejan, Molina, and Djeperov- they seemed like an unstoppable trio. How did Seoul f%*k that up?  From youtube.com)

2011 K-League Season

         First 10 Games                                      Last 20 Games                                       End                       

Rank	Team	Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Final
1st	Pohang	21	2.1		38	1.9		59	2nd
2nd	Jeonbuk	19	1.9		44	2.2		63	1st
3rd	Jeju Utd.	18	1.8		22	1.1		40	9th
4th	Sangju Sangmu	17	1.7		12	0.6		29	14th
5th	Jeonnam	16	1.6		27	1.35		43	7th
5th	Gyeongnam	16	1.6		26	1.3		42	8th
7th	FC Seoul	15	1.5		40	2		55	3rd
8th	Suwon Samsung	14	1.4		41	2.05		55	4th
9th	Busan I'Park	13	1.3		33	1.65		46	5th
9th	Gwangju	13	1.3		22	1.1		35	11th
9th	Incheon Utd.	13	1.3		19	0.95		32	13th
12th	Daegu FC	12	1.2		21	1.05		33	12th
12th	Daejeon Citizen	12	1.2		15	0.75		27	15th
14th	Ulsan Hyundai	10	1		36	1.8		46	6th
15th	Seongnam	8	0.8		27	1.35		35	10th
16th	Gangwon FC	2	0.2		13	0.65		15	16th

Choi Yong-soo cannot be faulted for Seoul's start in 2011 since he did not begin the season as Seoul's manager.  Over matched from the start, Hwang Bo-kwan was fired after only seven games.  In those first seven games, Seoul only won once and drew three times, collecting six points.  

From there, Seoul began to pick it up as Choi won his first three games in charge and Seoul sat in 7th place after the first ten games.  Collecting 40 points in their next 20 games, good enough for an average of 2 points per game (second best in the league), Seoul rebounded nicely and finished in third.  Still, their poor start really crippled their chances that year.  However, it was obvious that Choi was a significant upgrade over Hwang.  What started out as a disaster finished on a high note until the playoffs.  

In the playoff game against Ulsan, Kim Yong-dae had a disaster of a game- drops, flaps, clangers, etc.  It did not help that Dejan, in my opinion, had a perfectly legitimate second goal whistled away for being off-sides when it was obvious to all that he was on.  That loss really took the sheen off the season.  

(from fcseoul.com)

                                            2012 K-League Classic Season

           First 10 Games                                  Last 34 Games                                     End                          

Rank	Team	Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Final
1st	Suwon Samsung	23	2.3		50	1.47		73	4th
2nd	Ulsan Hyundai	21	2.1		47	1.8		68	5th
3rd	Jeju Utd.	21	2.1		42	1.23		63	6th
4th	FC Seoul	19	1.9		77	2.26		96	1st
5th	Jeonbuk	17	1.7		62	1.82		79	2nd
6th	Busan I'Park	16	1.6		37	1.09		53	7th
7th	Daegu FC	16	1.6		45	1.32		61	10th
8th	Pohang	14	1.4		63	1.85		77	3rd
9th	Seongnam	13	1.3		39	1.14		52	12th
10th	Gwangju	13	1.3		32	0.94		45	15th
11th	Jeonnam	11	1.1		42	1.24		53	11th
12th	Gangwon	11	1.1		38	1.12		49	14th
13th	Gyeongnam	8	0.8		42	1.24		50	8th
14th	Incheon Utd.	7	0.7		60	1.76		67	9th
15th	Sangju Sangmu	7	0.7		N/A	N/A		27	16th
16th	Daejeon Citizen	3	0.3		47	1.38		50	13th

Even though they have the lowest ranking of any team that has won the title in the last five years, FC Seoul still got off to a respectful start.  They collected 19 out of 30 points available and were only four points behind the top team after ten games.  From there, they really went on a run over their last 34 games, collecting averaging 2.26 points per game as they won the title quite easily that year.  

That is why I would rank the 2012 squad as the strongest in the K-League in the last five years.  They were stout defensively but could also play scintillating, attacking football.  2012 was, by far, Choi's best season but it probably helped though to have the two best players in the league on your squad that year.

(from yonhapnews.com)

2013 K-League Classic Season

           First 10 Games                                  Last 28 Games                                     End                     

Rank	Team	Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Avg.		Final	Pts.
1st	Pohang	28	2.8		46	1.64		1st	74
2nd	Suwon Samsung	20	2		33	1.18		5th	53
3rd	Jeonbuk	17	1.7		46	1.64		3rd	63
3rd	Jeju Utd.	17	1.7		41	1.46		9th	58
5th	Busan I'Park	16	1.6		38	1.36		6th	52
5th	Incheon Utd.	16	1.6		34	1.21		7th	50
7th	Ulsan Hyundai	15	1.5		58	2.07		2nd	73
8th	Seongnam	12	1.2		48	1.71		8th	60
9th	Jeonnam	11	1.1		29	1.04		10th	40
10th	FC Seoul	10	1		52	1.86		4th	62
10th	Gyeongnam	10	1		27	0.96		11th	37
12th	Daejeon Citizen	7	0.7		25	0.89		14th	32
13th	Gangwon FC	5	0.5		31	1.11		12th	36
14th	Daegu FC	4	0.4		28	1		13th	32

For Seoul, this was the first time that Choi Yong-soo's team got off to a really poor start.  In ten games, they collected just ten points, good enough for a point a game.  This was the type of performance that lead to Hwang being fired in 2011.  

However, I would argue there were mitigating circumstances.  The team in 2011 played poorly from the start, but the team in 2013 did not play that poorly.  I would say that some of that much of their start was down to bad luck- a late goal by Pohang (8:58 mark) in the first game, a Kim Yong-dae boner (5:00 mark- in his defense it did take a weird spin after he blocked it) in the second home game, a wonder goal by Bosancic (0:32 mark-watch the run and then the lob), etc.  It did not help that the team could not defend a lead during that time, as the Ulsan and Suwon games demonstrate, which led to them having such a shitty record through their first ten games.  Of course, after June, the team began to play better and collect points.  

However, they were a geriatric side that year who struggled to score goals when Dejan was not in the line-up.  Nonetheless, I would still argue that this squad was worthy of praise.  There were several late game winners and they had a great run in the ACL and were unlucky to be put out by the away goals rule in the final.   As I have said before, 2010 was probably my favorite season that I have followed Seoul, but the 2013 squad is my favorite Seoul team.  Even though they came up short in the league and the ACL Final, they battled valiantly.  

(from mesingoal.com)

2014 K-League Classic Season

           First 10 Games                                  Last 28 Games                                     End                     

Rank	Team	Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Avg.		Final	Pts.
1st	Pohang	22	2.2		36	1.29		4th	58
2nd	Jeonbuk	20	2		61	2.18		1st	81
3rd	Jeju Utd.	19	1.9		35	1.25		5th	54
4th	Suwon Samsung	15	1.5		52	1.86		2nd	67
4th	Ulsan Hyundai	15	1.5		35	1.25		6th	50
6th	Jeonnam	14	1.4		37	1.32		7th	51
7th	FC Seoul	12	1.2		46	1.46		3rd	58
7th	Busan I'Park	12	1.2		31	1.11		8th	43
9th	Gyeongnam	10	1		26	0.93		11th	36
9th	Sangju Sangmu	10	1		24	0.86		12th	34
11th	Seongnam	9	0.9		31	1.07		9th	40
12th	Incheon Utd.	4	0.4		36	1.29		10th	40

In what is beginning to feel like a pattern, Seoul struggled to get out of the gate again.  After ten games, Seoul sat in 7th place and collected only 12 points.  Ten points separated them from the top and it was such a massive hole that Seoul were out of the running before the end of May.

Once again, there were mitigating circumstances as Seoul lost the core of its team.  Dejan and Ha Dae-sung moved to China, Adi retired, and Molina was injured for the first half of the season.  Dejan's replacement, Rafael Costa, turned out to be a hobbit and struggled to make the cut.  I do not know how much due diligence was done before signing him, but I also feel as though Choi might not have really given Costa that much of a chance.

Unlike in 2011 or 2013, when Seoul struggled, they did not really turn it on after the first ten games.  The team really never gelled or went on a run.  They did not lose a lot after the first ten games, but they did not win a lot either.  Instead Seoul most drew against other sides.  Still, they somehow managed to qualify for the ACL at the expense of Pohang, so that is something.

For the final 28 games, they were the third best side in the league, which seems impressive.  Unfortunately, Seoul averaged just 1.46 points per game at that time.  I believe this shows that a draw was the most likely result of any contest Seoul played in.  That being said, Seoul's showing is more a symbol of how poor the league was than any thing they did that year

Just looking at the last 28 games though shows what a slog it was that year.  No wonder the league only averaged 1.1 goals per game.  Only two teams, Jeonbuk and Suwon, collected more than 1.5 points per game.  This is why I would say that 2014 could be dubbed "Year of the Draw".

This season was my least favorite of all the years I have followed the K-League.  It was one of attrition as teams failed to attack or score goals but did bore the hell out of spectators. 

(from youtube.com)

2015 K-League Classic Season

         First 10 Games                                    Last 28 Games                                     End                        

Rank	Team	Pts.	Avg.		Pts.	Avg.		Final	Pts.
1st	Jeonbuk	25	2.5		48	1.71		1st	73
2nd	Suwon	17	1.7		50	1.79		2nd	67
3rd	Jeju Utd.	15	1.5		35	1.25		6th	50
4th	Pohang	14	1.4		52	1.86		3rd	66
4th	Jeonnam	14	1.4		35	1.25		9th	49
6th	Ulsan	14	1.4		39	1.39		7th	53
7th	FC Seoul	12	1.2		50	1.79		4th	62
7th	Seongnam	12	1.2		48	1.71		5th	60
9th	Incheon Utd.	12	1.2		39	1.39		8th	51
9th	Gwangju FC	12	1.2		30	1.07		10th	42
11th	Busan I'Park	8	0.8		18	0.64		11th	26
12th	Daejeon Citizen	5	0.5		14	0.5		12th	19

Seoul, for the third year running, failed to come out of the gate and were 13 points behind the champions.  Thirteen points- Jesus Christ- that is terrible.  Unlike 2011, 2013, and 2014 though, Choi did not have any mitigating circumstances.

He was not an interim coach, nor did he lose any star players besides Kim Ju-young.  The team looked unprepared, uninspired, and most damning, unsure of what to do.  It is at this point that Choi probably deserved to be fired.

However, with some luck (I still can't believe that Daejeon let Adriano move) Choi was able to get Seoul back on track and the team finished strongly, albeit, not as well as in 2011 or 2013.  Yet, it is sour grapes to complain when the squad did win the FA Cup and beat their main rival Suwon convincingly in the last two contests they have played.

This is the first year that, after ten games, no team averaged more than two points a game.  However, five teams did average over 1.5 points a game, which helped to make things much more interesting.  I think it also helped that nine teams were all grouped within half a point of one another to make the ACL race much more interesting.  It is just too bad that Jeonbuk jumped out to such a big lead and that for them the title was a foregone conclusion.

(from fcseoul.com)

Conclusion

With the 2016 season about to begin, it looks as though history will repeat itself and Jeonbuk will be the champions three years in a row.  They have signed quite a bit of attacking talent this window- Ricardo Lopes, Kim Bo-kyung, Lee Jong-ho, and Kim Shin-wook to name a few.  They have also signed Eric Paartalu, who plays as a DM.  I really do not know much about him, but I guess he is good on set pieces and will add steel to their midfield.  I really hope Jeonbuk will suffer from having too many cooks in the kitchen and that they suffer because of it.  

That being said, I do not think it is likely.  I think we are witnessing a dynasty in the K-League.  Three championships in five years and three-peat are quite impressive feats.  They are like PSG at this point in my opinion.  

I feel as though this also shows how Seoul wasted their opportunities.  They won the league in 2010, should have repeated in 2011, and maybe even 2013.  Sure, Seoul was an old team in 2013 and played quite a few games that year, but on paper they were a better team than Pohang.   I guess what I am trying to say is that they should have won the league at least once more, maybe even twice.  It also shows how short the window to greatness is because after 2013, Seoul have come nowhere near it since then and it looks increasingly unlikely, truth be told, they will approach it any time soon.