Can Suwon Bluewings catch Incheon United?

Suwon Samsung Bluewings continued their excellent form with a comprehensive 3-1 win over Ansan Greeners on Saturday evening. The victory came at a cost, however, as star striker Stanislav Iljutcenko picked up his second red card of the season. As impressive as Suwon were, Incheon were strolling to three points in Busan. The gap remains eight points. Can Incheon be caught?

The simple answer is: no.

But sport, and football, just isn't that predictable. A collective loss of form, mounting injuries or suspensions, and rotten luck can completely derail a team's season in the blink of an eye. 

After four rounds of the 2025 K League 2 season, Suwon were below Hwaseong FC in the table. They won their opening fixture in Ansan, but followed that up with damaging defeats against promotion rivals Seoul E-Land (4-2) and Incheon United (2-0). When they finally made their long-awaited return to Big Bird due to pitch reconstruction in week four, boos greeted the full-time whistle. Suwon were terrible, barely holding on for a 0-0 draw against Chungnam Asan.

Since then, Suwon have played 20 league matches, winning 14 and losing just two. They've scored 48 against a concession of 25.

[READ: K League 2 membership granted to Paju, Gimhae, Yongin for 2026]

Reasons Incheon fans are celebrating already.

1. That defense.

Suwon are always going to leave themselves vulnerable because of the style of play Byun Seung-hwan deploys this season. The 4-3-3 formation often resembles 4-2-3-1, meaning the central two midfielders are regularly overrun on the break. Left-back Lee Ki-jae adds to the problems by pushing forward on his flank or, as we saw against Incheon United in June, getting outdone by pace. On that occasion, Gerso Fernandez was his primary tormentor. Lee isn't young. He still possesses enough qualities to start, but top-end pace isn't one of them. More irritating is the habit of those central players to momentarily switch off and lose focus, allowing opponents to drift behind them unchecked.

The thing is, Suwon have invested heavily in a defense that was the meanest in the league last year. Hwang Seok-ho (Ulsan HD), Kwon Wan-kyu (FC Seoul), Jeong Dong-yoon (Incheon United), and Léo Andrade (PAS Lamia) signed on the dotted line. Only loanee Lee Si-yong (FC Seoul) didn't return for pre-season. Suwon added depth even though their primary focus was fixing the attack.

New signing Léo Andrade made sure of the three points on Saturday.

A major problem with Suwon in recent seasons has been the lack of goals - in fact, not scoring more goals led to their automatic relegation from K League 1 in 2023, and ensured they dropped out of the K League 2 play-offs last season - because in Korea, goals scored (and not goal difference) is used when teams finish on the same points total. So in came Stanislav Iljutcenko, Bruno Silva, Matheus Serafim, and Park Ji-won. Why has the defense suffered, though? The Bluewings didn't neglect that area over the winter.

2. Incheon E-Land FC Kryptonite.

You see those four defeats? Yeh. Incheon United x2 and Seoul E-Land x2.

The third - and final - meetings with those clubs are coming soon. Suwon travel to Mokdong on September 13, and then to Incheon on October 8. The likelihood is that catching Incheon United means Suwon will have to go unbeaten for the remainder of the year. And that involves doing what they haven't been able to do so far; take points from Seoul and Incheon. The aggregate score in those four defeats is 10-3 against. Not pretty reading.

At this point, I'd be surprised if everyone associated with Suwon Samsung Bluewings isn't completely fed up with Seoul E-Land. Since their relegation in late 2023, Suwon faced Seoul for the first time in the league. In their five meetings, Seoul have a 100% record and a 13-4 goal difference. It is somewhat unfair that in both seasons the third game has gone to Seoul, but you won't find too much sympathy for Suwon.

Fortunately, the Bluewings are unlikely to finish below 2nd, so a playoff tie with Seoul is impossible. There are six matches to play after Suwon visit Sungui Arena. The optimistic Incheon scenario is that this match wraps up the league title against their rivals. For Suwon, it would be incredible if a win there saw Byun's side finally overtake Incheon in the league standings. Suwon need to be borderline perfect by October 8 to have any chance of automatic promotion. Incheon will drop points between now and then. Can the Bluewings capitalize?

3. Time is running out.

With 15 matches to go..... Suwon know the title is out of their hands, even though there are 45 points to fight for. The problem is Incheon United. Incheon boast a squad that should be competing for a place in the top 6 of K League 1. Is that group of players, led by Yoon Jung-hwan, capable of losing two or more matches in the run in? Add in a miserable run of fixtures over the next month, and the best Suwon can hope for it to maintain the current when their remaining matches shrinks to 10. Ball. Court. Incheon.

[LISTEN: #KLUpod | Son Heung-min leaves Spurs, Kim Pan-gon parts ways with Ulsan HD & K League Summer Friendly Wrap-up]

...But wait, there's more.

Of the Bluewings' 24 matches to date, Iljutcenko has featured in 22. The only matches he missed were for suspension, after he picked up a straight red card against Jeonnam Dragons on July 19. One of those games ended in defeat. Following his suspension, Iljutcenko roared back to form with two good finishes against Ansan Greeners on Saturday. Already on a yellow, he picked up a straight red card in consecutive appearances on 64 minutes, for the same foul - an elbow. Both fouls were missed by the match officials but reviewed through VAR. 

The Russian will be 35 on Wednesday, so it might have formed part of Byun's plans to occasionally rest him before the final push. However, rest through suspension is hardly ideal. Iljutcenko will need to be careful because his abrasive style has caught the attention of the match officials. There's no way his red cards were premeditated or acts of violence. He was unlucky, but an elbow to the face is a red card. Before Jeonnam away, Iljutcenko had collected just one straight card in his entire career, and that was over a decade ago. He's not a dirty player.

Stanislav Iljutcenko has two goals and two red cards in his last two starts.

Reasons the champagne is on ice.

1. It sure is fun this year.

As mentioned above, Suwon prioritized goal scoring in 2025. It isn't difficult to understand why; being goal-shy cost them their K League 1 status and was the central undoing of their promotion bid last year. Bluewings ended in 6th but were just four points shy of second. The results are there for all to see. Suwon have already found the net more times than in 2024, with 15 games left. Iljutcenko has 11 goals and Kim Ji-hyeon is on nine. Serafim and Paulinho have combined for 13. Injuries have restricted Bruno Silva to just 15 appearances, and Suwon would have banked on more than six goal contributions from him, but for injuries.

2. The squad is stacked.

The simplest reason why Incheon fans haven't retired their special edition 2025 kits yet is Suwon have the talent to go on a huge tear, and rack up 13 wins to close out the year. Without renaming all those players above, let's add the experienced midfielder duo of Choi Young-jun and Lee Gyu-sung, plus goalkeeper Yang Hyeong-mo. Talent and depth in every single position.

Suwon have failed to find the back of the net once since March 15th, but 10 times since then the Bluewings have scored three or more in a single match. With a difficult run of games ahead, they will need to dig deep, keep their best players on the pitch and get Bruno Silva back to full fitness. If they do all that, they have a chance. A slim one......but one nonetheless.

The Incheon juggernaut rolls on.

What's next for both clubs?

Incheon United

Saturday, August 16: Seongnam FC (h)

Sunday, August 24: Chungbuk Cheongju (a)

Saturday, August 30: Chungnam Asan (h)

Sunday, September 7: Bucheon FC 1995 (h)

Saturday, September 13: Cheonan City FC (a)

Suwon Bluewings

Saturday, August 16: Gimpo (a)

Sunday, August 24: Hwaseong FC (a)

Saturday, August 30: Seongnam FC (h)

Saturday, September 6: Busan IPark (a)

Saturday, September 13: Seoul E-Land (a)

[READ: Daegu's day but dark clouds rumble louder overhead]

The key takeaway from these upcoming matches is how many Suwon have on the road and, crucially, who they are against. Especially in September. Byun's troops have found Busan to be very awkward opponents since dropping down the division, whereas Seoul have yet to be conquered. At best, you feel they will match Incheon's results over the next month, which won't be easy. Such a scenario ensures Incheon maintains an eight-point gap with just 10 matches remaining. It is very hard to see the Bluewings making up lost ground from there.

The next month is likely to make-or-break Suwon's automatic promotion bid. Dropping points is inevitable. The heart says Suwon limp on into autumn, but the head believes Suwon have too much to do. Incheon's title.