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Hwang Sun-hong: How Does He Compare to Choi Yong-soo?

(Choi Yong-soo and Hwang Sun-hong, from www.widecoverage.co.kr)
On Tuesday, pretty much everyone on the peninsula that follows the K-League was floored by the news that Choi Yong-soo was leaving FC Seoul in the middle of the season to manage Jiangsu Suning. Choi Yong-soo cites this as an opportunity to expand his coaching repertoire by mentoring the likes of Alex Teixeira and Ramires, but football is not a charity, so the cynic in me thinks the amount of money being offered must have been too good to pass up.  Very few people in life will admit to a new move being a naked cash grab and instead, will always utilize the cliche of a new opportunity or some other b.s.


However, by no means is this a sour grapes post.  I wish Choi well in his new endeavor.  He has been at the club in some capacity since 2006 and Seoul have had a lot of success during his time as manager.  Choi got them through a tough spell in 2014 and 2015 when the quality of player was not as high as it was in the first part of  his tenure or now.

(Dan Petrescu, former Jiangsu manager, from sptfm.ro)
I think it is a big risk to leave the safety of Seoul to work for a management that has shown zero tolerance for anything other than finishing at the top.  Even though Jiangsu are third in the league, only four points behind Guangzhou Evergrande, they dismissed manager Dan Petrescu after just 36 games.  Obviously, this was due to his inability to get Jiangsu out of their group.

Choi is a good manager and if given time and the opportunity, I believe he will do well in China. However, his Seoul teams have been notoriously slow starters and that shit is not going to fly in the Chinese Super League (CSL).  In the K-League, Choi had the luxury of being given time to turn things around because at best there were only two or three clubs that were better and more ambitious than Seoul ever year.  In the CSL, I would put the number of clubs with ambitions to be the most successful at eight, but it is probably higher.  In the end, and I hate to sound negative, I foresee a return to the K-League in the next year or two.  Whether it will be with Seoul or not depends on how well his successor, Hwang Sun-hong, does.

(Hwang Sun-hong, from kleague.com)
Hwang coached the Pohang Steelers for five years leading them to a title, two FA Cups, and multiple ACL appearances.  In other words, his pedigree is quite impressive and in my opinion, Seoul could not have picked a better manager to take over on such short notice.  Ostensibly, Hwang stepped down from Pohang to study in Germany, but I think it was a matter of Posco telling him at the end of the season last year that everyone was being sold or allowed to leave and that included the lady who made the green tea.  Deciding that he did not want to try and keep the ship from sinking, it was the perfect time for a sabbatical from the sport.

For whatever reason, he has decided to accept the position at FC Seoul.  Let's have a look at his coaching career first.  He has coached for Busan I'Park and Pohang Steelers and here is his record in the K-League.


Hwan Sun-Hong (1 Championship, 2 FA Cups, 4 AFC Qualifications)
Team
Yr.
Rank
P
W (%)
D (%)
L (%)
GF (avg.)
GA (avg.)
Pts. (avg.)
Busan
2008
12th
26
5 (19%)
7 (27%)
14 (54%)
30 (1.15)
39 (1.5)
22 (0.84)
Busan
2009
12th
28
7 (25%)
8 (29%)
13 (46%)
36 (1.29)
42 (1.5)
29 (1.04)
Busan
2010
8th
28
8 (29%)
9 (32%)
11 (39%)
36 (1.29)
37 (1.32)
33 (1.18)
Pohang
2011
2nd
30
17 (57%)
8 (27%)
5 (17%)
59 (1.97)
33 (1.1)
59 (1.97)
Pohang
2012
3rd
44
23 (52%)
8 (18%)
13 (30%)
72 (1.64)
47 (1.07)
77 (1.75)
Pohang
2013
1st
38
21 (55%)
11 (29%)
6 (16%)
63 (1.66)
38 (1.0)
74 (1.95)
Pohang
2014
4th
38
16 (42%)
10 (26%)
12 (32%)
50 (1.32)
39 (1.03)
58 (1.53)
Pohang
2015
3rd
38
18 (47%)
12 (32%)
8 (21%)
49 (1.29)
32 (0.97)
66 (1.74)
Total
270
115 (43%)
73 (27%)
82 (30%)
395 (1.46)
307 (1.14)
418 (1.55)

Initially, his record seems underwhelming.  Hwang has won less than 50% of his games, his teams average less than 1.5 goals per game, and has won only slightly more than half points the points available per game. However, if you split his time between Busan and Pohang, his record improves so much.

Hwang Sun-Hong: Busan I'Park vs. Pohang Steelers
Team
P
W (%)
D (%)
L (%)
GF (avg.)
GA (avg.)
Pts. (avg.)
Busan
82
20 (24%)
24 (29%)
38 (46%)
102 (1.24)
118 (1.44)
84 (1.02)
Pohang
188
95 (51%)
49 (26%)
44 (23%)
293 (1.56)
189 (1.01)
334 (1.78)

In Busan, his winning percentage was slightly less than a quarter, but in Pohang it jumped to above 50%, which is an increase of 113%.  Conversely, Hwang lost almost half of his games during his time in Busan, but less than a quarter during his time in Pohang, which is good enough for a 50% decrease.  Finally, let's compare Hwang Sun-hong's record versus Choi Yong-soo's record from 2011 to 2015.


Hwang Sun-hong (HSH) vs. Choi Yong-soo (CYS): 2011 to 2015
Mgr.
P
W (%)
D (%)
L (%)
GF (avg.)
GA (avg.)
Pts. (avg.)
HSH
188
95 (51%)
49 (26%)
44 (23%)
293 (1.56)
189 (1.01)
334 (1.78)
CYS
181
93 (51%)
48 (27%)
40 (22%)
279 (1.54)
188 (1.04)
327 (1.8)

As you can see, there records are basically identical.  Compared to Choi Yong-soo, Hwang Sun-hong does significantly better against teams at the big four (Jeonbuk, FC Seoul, Suwon Bluewings, and Pohang), but Choi does slightly better against the teams in the rest of the league.  In other words, there is neither a significant upgrade nor downgrade in Seoul's choice to hire Hwang to replace Choi. Obviously, there are many questions, but I will only ask three.

Will Hwang change the formation or stay the same?  Currently, Seoul play in a 3-5-2 formation, but Hwang often opted for 4-2-3-1 when he managed Pohang.   I would say that it would be a mistake to change the formation because I do not think that Seoul have the personnel to play a different formation.  They have glut of forwards, midfielders, and defenders, but no full-backs, with Go Yo-han, Ko Kwang-min, and Kim Chi-woo having been converted from playing as wingers.

Also, how will manage Seoul's foreign contingent, especially Adriano?  Adriano has a reputation, somewhat undeserved I think, for putting forth minimal effort at times and I think this is what caused the rift between him and management in Daejeon.  His first manager, Cho Jin-ho, found a way to work with and get the best out of Adriano.  Unfortunately, after a slow start Cho was let go and replaced by Choi Moon-sik, who decided to be a hard-ass and show Adriano who the boss was.  In the end, Adriano left and joined Seoul while Daejeon were relegated.

There were questions over Choi Yong-soo's tactical acumen, but I do not think there could be any over his man-management.  Choi recognized Adriano's genius and allowed him a certain amount of freedom on the pitch.  That being said, he was no soft-touch and yanked Adriano early a couple of times when he was not giving enough effort.

Finally, how will the rest of the squad respond to this?  Choi seemed to be popular with the players and there was good team spirit this year.  Will that remain?  What direction will the team go in?  Will they play more conservatively?

Hwang Sun-hong makes his debut on June 29th, so that will be the first game that these questions will begun to be answered.

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