FC Seoul vs. Gwangju FC: Preview and Prediction

("We don't have cow.  We have bull."  Image from jarviscity.com)

In the cinematic masterpiece, Kingpin, Woody Harrelson plays a character by the name of Roy Munson.  Throughout the movie, his last name is used in a derogatory manner whenever someone fucks up royally.  To quote urbandictionary.com:

Derived from the film "Kingpin" starring Woody Harrelson whose characters last name is Munson. Also mentioned in the Bloodhound Gang song "Pennsylvania" the word describes someone who has everything going for them and when they reach the pinnacle of their success they do something that causes them to lose it all. Usually whatever makes that person lose it all is by a bad decision they have made driven by greed.

I feel as though this term Munson could apply to most of the teams in the K-League this year, particularly Suwon for most of the year and Jeonnam as of late.  The same can now be said for Seoul.but rather I am going to change the term from "Munson" to "Seoul/Seouled".  In other words, Seoul held their destiny in their hands, but they Seouled it all up.

I am really starting to hate Seongnam.  Last year, they won on penalties to take the FA Cup from Seoul and this year, they have stood toe-to-toe with Seoul.  In May's match-up, I really thought Seongnam was the better team and deserved to win.  Because the K-League persists with the misguided notion of weekday fixtures, I missed the game in July, but I do not think Seoul deserved to win that one at all based on the highlights I watched the next day.

Wednesday's game was quite frustrating.  I missed the first half, but I did manage to catch the second.  Sim Sang-min was lucky to be let off the hook for his poor pass in the 5th minute as Seongnam probably should have scored off of the counter.  Adriano should have had his 14th goal of the season in the 15th minute, but was denied by the bar.  Seoul looked great in the first 20 minutes and then disaster struck.

Park Yong-ji's wonderfully struck, left-foot volley from the edge of the penalty box is probably the K-League's goal of the year.  It is just too goddamn bad that it happened against Seoul.  Also, why can't any Seoul player do something like that?

Afterwards, Seongnam was quite happy to concede possession to Seoul and look to counter.  They had a couple of good chances to get a goal and Seoul eventually did equalize through Adriano, but it was correctly ruled off-sides.  It was not just Adriano, but the whole damn team that was off-sides on Molina's free kick.

With a game in hand, at best they can only draw even on points with Seongnam but will remain in 5th place unless they score four goals against Gwangju on Monday.  Even worse, Pohang have now opened up a five point lead on Seoul in the race for third.

I really feel as though Wednesday's result was just and it is indicative of the problems with Seoul this year.  This quote is from Iain Macintosh and it is about Liverpool, but I feel as though it is applicable to Seoul  (http://www.espnfc.us/club/liverpool/364/blog/post/2629415/brendan-rodgers-at-liverpool-is-there-any-hope-left):

Liverpool look short on confidence, but there's more than that. The structure doesn't work. There's precious little width unless the full-backs get up and when they do, there's a risk of being outflanked. There's no belief from the midfielders to make the kind of passes that were made in the 2013-14 campaign, mainly because there's no one making the runs that were made in that season. Getting in behind opposing defences now seems a foreign  concept. 

This is what I have been complaining about all year.  I feel like it accurately sums up Seoul, so I will move on from Wednesday's game and look at Monday's game.  From what I hear, it is Expat Appreciation Day at World Cup Stadium or something like that.  I always find this a bit embarrassing, but that is just me.

(from www.gwangjufc.com)

The opponent this year will be Gwangju.  It is kind of harsh to make them travel all the way up to Seoul over the long Chuseok weekend, but that is just my opinion.  Hopefully, they will be as accommodating as Suwon was last week and allow Seoul to win by three goals at least.  Damn, that really would be wonderful.

Unfortunately, I cannot see that happening.  Both of the games these teams have played have resulted in 1-1 draws.  The first time, I felt Seoul was a bit fortunate to escape with a point in April.  The same could be said of Gwangju the second time in July.

Both teams form has been shit as of late.  In the last five games, Seoul has lost three times and won only once.  For a team that fancies itself as a contender, that just won't do.  Seoul really does need a win this Monday, not only to stay in the race for the top three, but for their confidence as well.  I thought they had turned a corner last Saturday, but that does not seem to be the case.

Gwangju, who I felt was a good candidate to be relegated at the beginning of the year, started out very well.  Since beating Ulsan 1-0 back on July 11th, Gwangju has won only once.  In that time they have lost five games and have only collected six points out of a total of 27.

This is as good a team as any for Seoul to feast on.  This year, Seoul has been a bit of flat-track bully.  Most of their wins have come against teams at the bottom of the table.  Therefore, short of confidence, low in the table, and difficulty scoring goals is a wonderful combination for on opponent and Gwangju looks as though they should be easily put away.

However, this is Seoul we are talking about.  They will find a way to Seoul things up and make the game more difficult than it should be.  I think they will win in the end, but not by enough to make up the goal differential on Seongnam.

Final Score: Seoul 2- 1 Gwangju

Here is a table of comparisons from the website soccerway.com if you are interested:

General statistics	Seoul			Gwangju
	Total	Home	Away	Total	Home	Away
Rank				10
Matches played	9	5	4	31	15	16
Wins	3	2	1	8	3	5
Draws	3	2	1	11	5	6
Losses	3	1	2	12	7	5
Goals for	15	9	6	28	11	17
Goals against	10	3	7	33	16	17
Points	12	8	4	35	14	21
Clean sheets	4	4	0	11	6	5
Avg. goals scored p/m	1.67	1.80	1.50	0.9	0.73	1.06
Avg. goals conceded p/m	1.11	0.60	1.75	1.06	1.07	1.06
Avg. time 1st goal scored	56m	56m	55m	38m	28m	45m
Avg. time 1st goal conced.	25m	62m	16m	39m	49m	30m
Failed to score	3	2	1	11	7	4
Biggest victory	7 - 0	7 - 0	3 - 2	2 - 0	3 - 2	2 - 0
Biggest defeat	1 - 3	1 - 3	0 - 1	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 2

Scoring minutes	Seoul	Gwangju

0-15'

15-30'

30-45'

45-60'

60-75'

75-90'

6.7%	1
13.3%	2
13.3%	2
20.0%	3
26.7%	4
20.0%	3

10.7%	3
25.0%	7
17.9%	5
10.7%	3
14.3%	4
21.4%	6