Ranking Suwon Bluewings' potential Final B opponents
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| Suwon Bluewings' manager Byun Sung-hwan. |
Now that K League 1 has split into Final A (top six) and Final B (bottom six) after 33 rounds, the half-dozen sides fighting to avoid relegation are known. They are, in order of finish, FC Anyang, Gwangju FC, Ulsan HD, Suwon FC, Jeju SK, and Daegu FC. The team that finishes 12th goes down automatically. The next two sides must earn their K League 1 status by winning a relegation playoff.
The 10th placed team faces the winner of a convoluted K League 2 playoff in a two-legged fixture. The playoff winner will either be the 3rd, 4th, or 5th placed second tier side. Meanwhile, 11th in K League 1 faces 2nd in K League 2, also in a two-legged fixture. Currently, Suwon Samsung Bluewings occupy that position.
Theoretically, the Bluewings can still win the title. They trail Incheon United by eight points with four matches to play. But it is a very tall order. Depending on how results go this weekend, Incheon could be declared champions before the start of November. Suwon are not guaranteed a top two finish just yet either. Bucheon SK trail the Bluewings by seven points. Unless there's a dramatic loss of form from either Incheon or Suwon over the next four weeks, we can confidently predict who'll finish first and second in K League 2.
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| K League 2 standings. Image: transfermarkt. |
In one sense, Suwon should be dangerous opposition for a struggling top flight team. They have the history and name recognition to strike fear. Their squad, especially in advanced areas, is littered with high quality performers, notably Brazilian forward Matheus Serafim. They are 10 points better off than last season, and with 70 goals scored, they are averaging two per game. That's eight more than leaders Incheon United.
Turn your gaze on their back-line, and the picture is considerably less promising. The Bluewings are brittle in defense. The 47 goals conceded is a huge red flag. Only five teams have leaked more. Incheon might not be as free scoring, but they've conceded 19 fewer goals than Suwon. But there's another problem. A disturbing trend going back to last season. The Bluewings concede the first goal of the match far too often.
Hwaseong opened the scoring against Byun Sung-hwan's men on Sunday afternoon. That marked the 17th time this season the league challengers have fallen behind in a match. The consequences of this are obvious. Instead of being on the front foot, looking to close the gap on Incheon, Suwon have routinely found themselves chasing matches. They are known as a team that finishes strongly, and Sunday's win came in the 15th minute of added-on time.
Falling behind to a K League 1 team will pose even greater questions. Hwaseong are 10th in K League 2, but this was the second time this year they've taken the lead in their Suwon matchups. Better teams will punish Suwon. Unless they can rectify this issue by December - and there's no suggestion they can - their stay in K League 2 will be extended by another 12 months.
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| Current K League 1 Final B standings. |
7. FC Anyang.
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| Young Anyang winger Moon Seong-woo scores against Gimcheon Sangmu. |
Reasons to be confident:
Suwon defeated Anyang in all three matches during the Violets' championship run last season. Despite a largely indifferent season that saw Suwon finish outside the top five, claiming nine points from nine against the champions-elect was a brilliant return. Suwon also have significant quality, especially in the attacking third, to inflict damage on Anyang. Finally, even though we can't put a value on the importance of culture, history, and success, they do count for something. In a Korean football context, Suwon are dripping with them.
Reasons to be scared:
Anyang are really good. The spine of the Anyang presumed 11 is more solid than Suwon's; From Kim Da-sol in goals to Kwon Gyeong-won and Lee Chang-yong at the back, Kim Jung-hyeon and Matheus Oliveira in midfield, and Bruno Mota up front. If Suwon's front three can target Anyang, then Mota can do even more damage to Suwon's shaky defenders. Anyang's depth is deeper than we guessed in February, too. Let's be honest, though. Given Anyang's current position, finishing 11th is not happening. There's no reason to discuss this any more.
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
Close to zero. Anyang are ten points clear of Jeju SK with five matches to play. And unbeaten in eight. As Thomas Oude Kotte said after Saturday's brutal destruction of Gimcheon, "we are very confident right now." They're not going to suddenly nosedive.
8. Gwangju FC.
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| Gwangju FC manager Lee Jung-hyo has masterminded the Korea Cup run. |
Reasons to be confident:
Since making the Korea Cup Final for the first time, Gwangju's form has dipped. They won 50% of their matches in August, but have recorded one win in five since, despite a comfortable run of fixtures. With Jasir Asani gone, it is difficult to see where the danger comes from. With a goal per match, only Gangwon have scored fewer. 32-year-old Brazilian Reis has nine for the season, with no-one else remotely close. Keeping him quiet would be key.
Reasons to be scared:
Their qualities lie in other areas. Gwangju are a good side, with an exceptional manager. In 2023, they finished third in K League 1. Last season, they made the ACL Elite quarter-finals (further than any K League rivals), and this year, Gwangju qualified for the Korea Cup Final. They really shouldn't be in Final B, but a run of one point from a possible 12 saw them drop in the bottom half. Of the 33 rounds played so far, Gwangju were in the top half for 26.
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
See above. Gwangju are level on points with Anyang (42), 10 clear of 11th. No chance.
9. Ulsan HD.
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| Lee Chang-yong brings his 9 iron to Munsu. |
Reasons to be confident:
A season like no other for Ulsan has seen them tumble down the table and into a scarcely believable relegation battle. Because of their participation in the FIFA Club World Cup, Ulsan were given a top-heavy set of fixtures. When they returned from USA pointless, Gwangju knocked them out of the cup. Kim Pan-gon was gone in August and his replacement, Shin Tae-yong, was fired after two months. The club then got dragged into a completely unnecessary public war-of-words with their ex-manager. It speaks to an organisation that looks jaded and in need of new ideas.
Reasons to be scared:
Ulsan are three-in-a-row champions. There's obviously quality in the squad - and Erick Farias has already equaled Joo Min-kyu's total from last season. K League has a recent history of putting manners on big clubs (Seongnam, Suwon, and Incheon all relegated) but finishing in the playoff spot gives Ulsan 180 minutes over two-legs to get their act together. They have reigning K League MVP Jo Hyeon-woo in goal, Kim Young-gwon captaining, Um Won-sang and Ko Seung-beom in midfield, and Erick up front. This season is a blip. They're far too good to go down.
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
Slim, but not impossible. Ulsan secured a much-needed win over Gwangju on Saturday, but it is too early to tell if they've turned a corner. That was their first three points since early August. They could get dragged back in.
10. Suwon FC.
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| Colombian-born Syrian international Pablo Sabbag has been a revelation since joining Suwon. The striker is joint-top goal scorer with 15 in K League 1. |
The Bluewings have better players than Suwon FC. That isn't always enough to guarantee you victory, but the squad must be confident of toppling Suwon FC based solely on the respective strengths of both squads. I can't think of more. Suwon FC are actually pretty decent.
Reasons to be scared:
A Suwon derby would capture the attention of the entire football community. The country would be rooting for the underdogs, Suwon FC. The Bluewings also have a much bigger fan base, and the pressure that goes with that could have a negative impact on the team, especially if the first leg goes badly. Suwon FC have good players and a great manager, but they are better known for their ability to punch well above their weight. Put another way, Suwon FC will not fear Suwon Samsung.
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
Getting weaker. Suwon are six points above 11th with 15 points up for grabs. I can't see where Jeju get the points to make up the difference. They should be looking up, and not down.
11. Jeju SK.
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| In one of the most extraordinary matches of recent times, Jeju received four red cards against Suwon FC. |
Charlie Beasley, Jeju SK writer for K League United, enters the conversation. "Suwon have scored the most goals this season in K League 2 (70) showing they do have some firepower up front. Jeju on the other hand, have conceded 47 goals (3rd highest behind Daegu and Suwon FC). Add that to the recent game of Suwon FC vs Jeju - seeing Jeju pick up four red cards, and the Bluewings will prey on the fact that the morale of the Islanders seems to be a very negative one."
Reasons to be scared:
"In what has ultimately been a very disappointing season," Charlie admits, "it is worth noting Jeju currently have picked up three points from their last 30 points available. The last time the Tangerines were in a similar position was between Round 7 and Round 15, which saw Jeju pick up six points from a possible 27. The reason Suwon should be on edge is because after that poor run of form, Jeju then won three games on the bounce, including a 1-0 win away to Suwon FC, and most notably a 3-1 win away to FC Seoul (their only only wins away from home this year)."
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
Even though the form guide suggests otherwise, I personally think Jeju will just about hold off the Daegu Revolution and sneak into the playoffs. The fixture release favors Jeju. Had they faced Daegu this weekend, as opposed to round 37, the gap might well have been cut further, and a sense of crisis developing in the camp. Daegu, however, are likely to drop points in the coming weeks. Jeju haven't won since July, and yet could avoid automatic relegation. Remarkable.
12. Daegu FC.
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| Cesinha reacts to Daegu's remarkable late comeback against Gangwon, keeping their survival dreams alive. |
Jang Mu-yol, K League United's Daegu correspondent, acknowledges that Daegu's lifeline "is all down to Cesinha. Without him being so influential, Daegu would have never been able to come this far. Another factor Suwon Bluewings would fancy is Daegu's leaky defense. With the defense switching from a back three to back four or vice versa, the defense hasn't been solid enough, costing points." And the data backs that up, 62 goals conceded is, by far, the worst in the division. No team should expect to stay up (or survive a playoff) when they offer up two goals per game to the opposition.
Reasons to be scared:
Daegu's form is improving, at just the right time (for them). "Despite Daegu having the worst season," Mu-yeol accepts, "not just being at the bottom all season, but also the off the pitch-issues and the managerial change, they have finally managed to turn things around. Daegu have regained the momentum and confidence as a team. In particular, Daegu's talisman Cesinha has been pivotal in Daegu's revival, looking to rescue his beloved side out of the direct relegation place." There's more. Daegu were dead-and-buried in the playoffs last season, at one point trailing Chungnam Asan 4-1. Cesinha saved them that time. Could he do it again?
Likelihood of this fixture happening:
45% possibility. Mu-yeol is correct. Their form is good. Daegu have lost once since mid-August, and they have recorded some big wins on the road, against Gimcheon Sangmu and Gwangju. But they're running out of matches. If they can keep the fight going to the penultimate weekend, when they travel to Jeju, all bets are off.
This weekend's fixtures:
Gwangju FC vs. FC Anyang (Saturday).
Suwon FC vs. Jeju SK (Saturday).
Ulsan HD vs. Daegu FC (Sunday).
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