Daejeon Hana Citizen aren't safe yet but they're not far off

It has been a decent first season back in K League 1 for Daejeon Hana Citizen, despite missing out on a place in the top six. Lee Min-sung's men managed 11 wins pre-split, the target was 10 with 45 points - the current total earned by his players after Round 33. 

So, what's next? Well, Daejeon still aren't mathematically safe from relegation. Suwon FC's draw away to Daegu FC in Round 33 means that, despite Daejeon's win over Jeju on the same day, the points gap is 14 with 15 points left to play for. Given that the Purples have the far superior goals-scored tally compared to Suwon (49 to 37), one point would most likely be enough to guarantee top-flight football next year, which will be the team's utmost priority as soon as Final B gets underway.

What else is there to play for? Well, with K League's ever-changing format throughout the mid-2000s, and with golden goal and penalty shootout endings from 1998 to 2000, earning a club-record number of top-flight wins is out of the question as there aren't enough games for them to be able to do so. The club's record currently stands at 18 but that came in a 44-game season (2003). 

Points per game

Daejeon's current points per game score after 33 matches is 1.37, the third best in their history at this level behind 2003 (1.48) and 2007 (1.42). Therefore, Daejeon need to earn 12 points from 15 available to set a new points per game record as this would take them to 1.5 PPG, 11 points would be 1.47 and lower than their score from 2003.

Win percentage

What about win percentage? Daejeon's best win percentage in the top flight is 40.1% from the 2003 season when the Purples won 18 of their 44 matches. The 2007 campaign is second with 38.5% (10 wins from 26 matches), followed by the current season so far at 33.3%. To set a new record, then, Lee Min-sung's men will need to win all five of their last five matches. Four wins would only result in a 39.5% win record.

Defeat percentage

We're probably clutching at straws now to find some sort of record that can be broken this season, something to show for what has been a solid first campaign back in the top flight for Daejeon. Currently, with 10 losses from 33 games played, Daejeon's defeat percentage is a touch over 30% (30.3). The club's lowest is 25%, earned in 2005 when Daejeon lost just six of their 24 matches. But, even if Daejeon were to avoid defeat in all of their remaining five matches, it still wouldn't be enough to break that 25% record.

Games not lost percentage

Now, we are really desperate to find something but, if you think about it, avoiding defeat enough times is what keeps newly promoted teams in divisions. That seems to be what's happened with Daejeon this season whose fans had reluctantly become accustomed to seeing their team lose more games than they win. This 2023 Daejeon team have, so far, avoided defeat in 70% of their matches which is the most ever. But only just with the 2005 season just behind (69.2%) meaning that Daejeon don't have any margin for error and would need to avoid defeat in at least four of their last five games to maintain a games not lost percentage of 70 or higher.

What really matters

Winning all their remaining matches or even just remaining unbeaten is perhaps unrealistic and as long as safety is sealed, whatever happens next is just a bonus. Besides, even though football has evolved into a data era where xG and the number of progressive runs a player makes are scrutinised, once a place in K League 1 for 2024 is confirmed, none of that statistical stuff really matters. 

More than anything, it's been a season of memorable moments. Daejeon fans have actually enjoyed a top-flight season for the first time since 2012, the last time they had seen their team avoid relegation Their team has gone unbeaten against last season's champions - and most likely this year's too - Ulsan Hyundai (one win, two draws), unbeaten against last year's FA Cup winners Jeonbuk (one win, two draws), unbeaten against FC Seoul (two wins, one draw), unbeaten against rivals Suwon Bluewings (two wins, one draw), plus there have been 2021 playoff revenge wins over Gangwon FC.

Golden boot race

Plus, Tiago Orobó is in the golden boot race having bagged 14 - just one fewer than Ulsan's Joo Min-kyu - and arguably has easier opponents to score against in Final B. His record against the other four teams in Final B makes for good reading, too, as eight of his 14 goals have come against teams in the bottom half (two each vs. Gangwon, Suwon FC, and FC Seoul and one vs. Jeju and Suwon Bluewings).

'Assist king' race

Leandro and Lee Jin-hyun, too, are chasing individual awards and could end the season as the K League 1 'assist king', as it's referred to, or "doum-wang" (도움왕) in Korean. The pair have six each, just two behind the division's leading assist maker Baek Sung-dong of Pohang Steelers. For Lee, four of his assists have come against teams in Final B (one each vs Suwon FC, Suwon Bluewings, FC Seoul, Gangwon FC) while Leandro has managed the same number (three vs Gangwon, one vs Suwon FC).

[READ: 2023 K League 1 Final A & B Fixtures]

Final B fixtures

R34 Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Suwon FC - 16:40
R35 Suwon Samsung Bluewings vs Daejeon Hana Citizen - 14:00
R36 Daejeon Hana Citizen vs Gangwon FC - 14:00
R37 Jeju United vs Daejeon Hana Citizen - 14:00
R38 Daejeon Hana Citizen vs FC Seoul - 14:00