Part 2: Is 31% of games ending in a draw high?

(from en.prothom-alo.com)

Yesterday, I wrote about how the K-League compared to eighteen other leagues over the course of five years.  I looked at the K-League first and noticed that, from 2011 until 2015, that draws increased while goals decreased.  Then I looked at how the K-League compared to eighteen other leagues (9 from Asia, one from North America, one from South America, seven from Europe) and I found that teams that leagues that have more draws have a lower goal average than teams that win.  Unfortunately, the K-League was in the upper third of the table in draws while being in the lower third in wins and they only averaged 1.24 goals a game, which was the third lowest in all of the leagues.  Now I will look at the last two years.  Here is a link to the two year tables.



The last two years in the K-League have felt like a bit of a slog for FC Seoul.  Of course, much of that has been down to the departure of such key figures as Dejan, Ha Dae-sung, and Adi and it showed in 2014 as Seoul struggled to score goals.  If it was not for the mid season addition of Adriano, I think their goal tally would have been a lot less and their league position would have suffered for it.

Nonetheless, as the results will show, the league has become much more defensive as a whole.  I believe this is the result of conservative coaching philosophies, an exodus of quality players, and less diversity in the league.  Below  is a table of the results for the last two years of 18 leagues.  .  

League	Played	Wins (Pct.)	Draws (Pct.)	Losses (Pct.)	Goals (avg.)
K-League	912	318 (35%)	276 (30%)	318 (35%)	1052 (1.15)
Chinese SL	960	343 (35.72%)	274 (28.54%)	343 (35.72%)	1331 (1.39)
J-League	1224	460 (37.58%)	304 (24.83%)	460 (37.58%)	1594 (1.3)
A-League	540	204 (38%)	132 (24%)	204 (38%)	772 (1.43)
Saudi PFL	728	269 (37%)	190 (26%)	269 (37%)	1046 (1.44)
Persian Gulf PL	960	310 (32.29%)	340 (35.41%)	310 (32.29%)	1029 (1.07)
Arabian Gulf League	728	268 (37%)	188 (26%)	268 (37%)	1133 (1.56)
Uzbekistan PFL	844	347 (41%)	150 (18%)	347 (41%)	1157 (1.37)
Qatar SL	728	271 (37%)	186 (26%)	271 (37%)	1166 (1.6)
MLS	1326	502 (38%)	322 (24%)	502 (38%)	1861 (1.4)
Scottish PFL	912	362 (39.69%)	188 (20.61%)	362 (39.69%)	1213 (1.33)
English PL	1520	589 (38.75%)	342 (22.5%)	589 (38.75%)	2050 (1.35)
FL Championship	2208	790 (36%)	628 (28%)	790 (36%)	2908 (1.32)
Bundesliga	1224	466 (38%)	292 (24%)	466 (38%)	1810 (1.48)
Bundesliga 2	1224	427 (35%)	370 (30%)	427 (35%)	1548 (1.26)
La Liga	1520	583 (38.35%)	354 (23.28%)	583 (38.35%)	2054 (1.35)
Segunda Div.	1848	652 (35.28%)	544 (29.43%)	652 (35.28%)	2214 (1.2)
Argentina PD*	1660	573 (34.51%)	514 (30.96%)	573 (34.51%)	1803 (1.09)
Total	21066	7734 (36.71%)	5594 (26.55%)	7734 (36.71%)	27741 (1.32)

* 2014 was shortened (see tables), so I covered 2013-2014 and 2015.

Looking at the total averages, wins and the average number of goals is down slightly while draws are up.

• In the last five years, the winning percentage was 37%, but in the last two years it is 36.71%.  
• In the last five years, the percentage of draws was 26%, but in the last two years it is 26.55%.  
• In the last five years, the average number of goals scored was 1.33, but in the last two years it is 1.32.   

Really though, the margins are minimal.  If I rounded everything up for the last two years, it would have been 101%, so that is why I have the two decimal places (ex: 26.55%).  Next, here is the table ranking the win percentage of the league and draw percentage of the league and next to that is the average number of goals for each league.

2 Year Comparison of Win Pct. And Draw Pct. Versus Avg. Goals

League	Win Pct.	Avg. Goal		League	Draw Pct.	Avg. Goal
Uzbekistan PFL	41%	1.37		Persian Gulf PL	35.41%	1.07
Scottish PFL	39.69%	1.33		Argentina PD	30.96%	1.09
English PL	38.75%	1.35		K-League	30%	1.15
La Liga	38.35%	1.35		Bundesliga 2	30%	1.2
Bundesliga	38%	1.48		Segunda Div.	29.43%	1.26
A-League	38%	1.43		Chinese SL	28.54%	1.39
MLS	38%	1.4		FL Championship	28%	1.32
J-League	37.58%	1.3		Saudi PFL	26%	1.44
Qatar SL	37%	1.6		Arabian Gulf League	26%	1.56
Arabian Gulf League	37%	1.56		Qatar SL	26%	1.6
Saudi PFL	37%	1.44		J-League	24.83%	1.3
FL Championship	36%	1.32		MLS	24%	1.4
Chinese SL	35.72%	1.39		A-League	24%	1.43
Segunda Div.	35.28%	1.26		Bundesliga	24%	1.48
Bundesliga 2	35%	1.2		La Liga	23.28%	1.35
K-League	35%	1.15		English PL	22.50%	1.35
Argentina PD	34.51%	1.09		Scottish PFL	20.61%	1.33
Persian Gulf PL	32.29%	1.07		Uzbekistan PFL	18%	1.37

Let's compare the winning percentages between five years and two years.  

Comparison of Win Percentage 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years	Win %	2 Years	Win %
Uzbekistan PFL	40.59%	Uzbekistan PFL	41%
La Liga	38.57%	Scottish PFL	39.69%
Arabian Gulf	38%	English PL	38.75%
Bundesliga	38%	La Liga	38.35%
Scottish PFL	38%	Bundesliga	38%
J-League	38%	A-League	38%
A-League	37.58%	MLS	38%
Qatar SL	37.50%	J-League	37.58%
English PL	37.28%	Qatar SL	37%
Saudi PFL	37%	Arabian Gulf League	37%
MLS	37%	Saudi PFL	37%
FL Championship	36.30%	FL Championship	36%
Bundesliga 2	36%	Chinese SL	35.72%
Segunda Div.	36%	Segunda Div.	35.28%
K-League	36%	Bundesliga 2	35%
Chinese SL	35.50%	K-League	35%
Argentine PD	34.32%	Argentina PD	34.51%
Persian Gulf	32.90%	Persian Gulf PL	32.29%

The top and bottom team did not change.  The K-League moved down one spot while the Chinese Super League jumped three up spots in winning percentage even though the gain in winning percentage was minimal.  This seems to have more to do with other leagues than anything the Chinese Super League has done.  Let's compare the percentage of draws for five years versus two years.

Comparison of the Percentage of Draws 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years	Draw %	2 Years	Draw %
Persian Gulf	34.19%	Persian Gulf PL	35.41%
Argentine PD	31.34%	Argentina PD	30.96%
Chinese SL	29%	K-League	30%
K-League	28%	Bundesliga 2	30%
Segunda Div.	28%	Segunda Div.	29.43%
Bundesliga 2	28%	Chinese SL	28.54%
FL Championship	27.39%	FL Championship	28%
MLS	26%	Saudi PFL	26%
Saudi PFL	26%	Arabian Gulf League	26%
English PL	25.42%	Qatar SL	26%
Qatar SL	25%	J-League	24.83%
A-League	24.82%	MLS	24%
J-League	24%	A-League	24%
Scottish PFL	24%	Bundesliga	24%
Bundesliga	24%	La Liga	23.28%
Arabian Gulf	24%	English PL	22.50%
La Liga	22.84%	Scottish PFL	20.61%
Uzbekistan PFL	18.80%	Uzbekistan PFL	18%

As with wining percentage, not much really changed.  What jumps out at me is how often games result in draws in the Persian Gulf League.  Also, as you can see, K-League games now resulted in a draw 30% of the time, up from the 5 year average of 28%.  Finally, let's compare the goal average for the last five years versus the last two years.

Comparison of the Goal Average 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years	Avg.	2 Years	Avg.	Diff. (+/-)
Uzbekistan PFL	1.35	Uzbekistan PFL	1.37	(+) .02
Scottish PFL	1.34	Scottish PFL	1.33	(-) .01
English PL	1.37	English PL	1.35	(-) .02
La Liga	1.38	La Liga	1.35	(-) .03
Bundesliga	1.46	Bundesliga	1.48	(+) .02
A-League	1.38	A-League	1.43	(+) .05
MLS	1.35	MLS	1.4	(+) .05
J-League	1.37	J-League	1.3	(-) .07
Qatar SL	1.5	Qatar SL	1.6	(+) .01
Arabian Gulf	1.64	Arabian Gulf League	1.56	(-) .08
Saudi PFL	1.45	Saudi PFL	1.44	(-) .01
FL Championship	1.33	FL Championship	1.32	(-) .01
Chinese SL	1.32	Chinese SL	1.39	(+) .07
Segunda Div.	1.28	Segunda Div.	1.26	(-) .02
Bundesliga 2	1.32	Bundesliga 2	1.2	(-) .12
K-League	1.24	K-League	1.15	(-) .09
Argentine PD	1.11	Argentina PD	1.09	(-) .02
Persian Gulf	1.14	Persian Gulf PL	1.07	(-) .07

There seems to be a general trend of less scoring in the last two years.  Only six of the eighteen teams had a positive average goal differential, whereas twelve teams had a negative one.  What does this mean?  Who the hell knows or even cares?  I just thought it might be of interest.

As I suspected, the Chinese Super League had the biggest increase in scoring while the Bundesliga 2, somewhat surprisingly, the decreased the most dramatically.  The K-League had the second biggest reduction in goal average, falling from an already measly 1.24 goals per game to an even more paltry 1.15 goals a game.  Hence, I suspect the reason behind the league office's decision to count goals scored rather than goal differential in deciding league positioning.

To sum up, the K-League has become very defensive in the last five years.  Draws are up while scoring is down.  In the last two years, the K-League has averaged around 30% of their games resulting in a draw.   Therefore, the fact that Seoul was in third place in July of 2015 even though they had tied over 31% of their games should be no surprise.