Part 2: Is 31% of games ending in a draw high?
(from en.prothom-alo.com) |
The last two years in the K-League have felt like a bit of a slog for FC Seoul. Of course, much of that has been down to the departure of such key figures as Dejan, Ha Dae-sung, and Adi and it showed in 2014 as Seoul struggled to score goals. If it was not for the mid season addition of Adriano, I think their goal tally would have been a lot less and their league position would have suffered for it.
Nonetheless, as the results will show, the league has become much more defensive as a whole. I believe this is the result of conservative coaching philosophies, an exodus of quality players, and less diversity in the league. Below is a table of the results for the last two years of 18 leagues. .
League
|
Played
|
Wins (Pct.)
|
Draws (Pct.)
|
Losses (Pct.)
|
Goals (avg.)
|
K-League
|
912
|
318 (35%)
|
276 (30%)
|
318 (35%)
|
1052 (1.15)
|
Chinese SL
|
960
|
343 (35.72%)
|
274 (28.54%)
|
343 (35.72%)
|
1331 (1.39)
|
J-League
|
1224
|
460 (37.58%)
|
304 (24.83%)
|
460 (37.58%)
|
1594 (1.3)
|
A-League
|
540
|
204 (38%)
|
132 (24%)
|
204 (38%)
|
772 (1.43)
|
Saudi PFL
|
728
|
269 (37%)
|
190 (26%)
|
269 (37%)
|
1046 (1.44)
|
Persian Gulf PL
|
960
|
310 (32.29%)
|
340 (35.41%)
|
310 (32.29%)
|
1029 (1.07)
|
Arabian Gulf League
|
728
|
268 (37%)
|
188 (26%)
|
268 (37%)
|
1133 (1.56)
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
844
|
347 (41%)
|
150 (18%)
|
347 (41%)
|
1157 (1.37)
|
Qatar SL
|
728
|
271 (37%)
|
186 (26%)
|
271 (37%)
|
1166 (1.6)
|
MLS
|
1326
|
502 (38%)
|
322 (24%)
|
502 (38%)
|
1861 (1.4)
|
Scottish PFL
|
912
|
362 (39.69%)
|
188 (20.61%)
|
362 (39.69%)
|
1213 (1.33)
|
English PL
|
1520
|
589 (38.75%)
|
342 (22.5%)
|
589 (38.75%)
|
2050 (1.35)
|
FL Championship
|
2208
|
790 (36%)
|
628 (28%)
|
790 (36%)
|
2908 (1.32)
|
Bundesliga
|
1224
|
466 (38%)
|
292 (24%)
|
466 (38%)
|
1810 (1.48)
|
Bundesliga 2
|
1224
|
427 (35%)
|
370 (30%)
|
427 (35%)
|
1548 (1.26)
|
La Liga
|
1520
|
583 (38.35%)
|
354 (23.28%)
|
583 (38.35%)
|
2054 (1.35)
|
Segunda Div.
|
1848
|
652 (35.28%)
|
544 (29.43%)
|
652 (35.28%)
|
2214 (1.2)
|
Argentina PD*
|
1660
|
573 (34.51%)
|
514 (30.96%)
|
573 (34.51%)
|
1803 (1.09)
|
Total
|
21066
|
7734 (36.71%)
|
5594 (26.55%)
|
7734 (36.71%)
|
27741 (1.32)
|
* 2014 was shortened (see tables), so I covered 2013-2014 and 2015.
Looking at the total averages, wins and the average number of goals is down slightly while draws are up.
Let's compare the winning percentages between five years and two years.
The top and bottom team did not change. The K-League moved down one spot while the Chinese Super League jumped three up spots in winning percentage even though the gain in winning percentage was minimal. This seems to have more to do with other leagues than anything the Chinese Super League has done. Let's compare the percentage of draws for five years versus two years.
As with wining percentage, not much really changed. What jumps out at me is how often games result in draws in the Persian Gulf League. Also, as you can see, K-League games now resulted in a draw 30% of the time, up from the 5 year average of 28%. Finally, let's compare the goal average for the last five years versus the last two years.
There seems to be a general trend of less scoring in the last two years. Only six of the eighteen teams had a positive average goal differential, whereas twelve teams had a negative one. What does this mean? Who the hell knows or even cares? I just thought it might be of interest.
As I suspected, the Chinese Super League had the biggest increase in scoring while the Bundesliga 2, somewhat surprisingly, the decreased the most dramatically. The K-League had the second biggest reduction in goal average, falling from an already measly 1.24 goals per game to an even more paltry 1.15 goals a game. Hence, I suspect the reason behind the league office's decision to count goals scored rather than goal differential in deciding league positioning.
To sum up, the K-League has become very defensive in the last five years. Draws are up while scoring is down. In the last two years, the K-League has averaged around 30% of their games resulting in a draw. Therefore, the fact that Seoul was in third place in July of 2015 even though they had tied over 31% of their games should be no surprise.
- In the last five years, the winning percentage was 37%, but in the last two years it is 36.71%.
- In the last five years, the percentage of draws was 26%, but in the last two years it is 26.55%.
- In the last five years, the average number of goals scored was 1.33, but in the last two years it is 1.32.
2 Year Comparison of Win Pct. And Draw Pct. Versus Avg. Goals
League
|
Win Pct.
|
Avg. Goal
|
League
|
Draw Pct.
|
Avg. Goal
| |
Uzbekistan PFL
|
41%
|
1.37
|
Persian Gulf PL
|
35.41%
|
1.07
| |
Scottish PFL
|
39.69%
|
1.33
|
Argentina PD
|
30.96%
|
1.09
| |
English PL
|
38.75%
|
1.35
|
K-League
|
30%
|
1.15
| |
La Liga
|
38.35%
|
1.35
|
Bundesliga 2
|
30%
|
1.2
| |
Bundesliga
|
38%
|
1.48
|
Segunda Div.
|
29.43%
|
1.26
| |
A-League
|
38%
|
1.43
|
Chinese SL
|
28.54%
|
1.39
| |
MLS
|
38%
|
1.4
|
FL Championship
|
28%
|
1.32
| |
J-League
|
37.58%
|
1.3
|
Saudi PFL
|
26%
|
1.44
| |
Qatar SL
|
37%
|
1.6
|
Arabian Gulf League
|
26%
|
1.56
| |
Arabian Gulf League
|
37%
|
1.56
|
Qatar SL
|
26%
|
1.6
| |
Saudi PFL
|
37%
|
1.44
|
J-League
|
24.83%
|
1.3
| |
FL Championship
|
36%
|
1.32
|
MLS
|
24%
|
1.4
| |
Chinese SL
|
35.72%
|
1.39
|
A-League
|
24%
|
1.43
| |
Segunda Div.
|
35.28%
|
1.26
|
Bundesliga
|
24%
|
1.48
| |
Bundesliga 2
|
35%
|
1.2
|
La Liga
|
23.28%
|
1.35
| |
K-League
|
35%
|
1.15
|
English PL
|
22.50%
|
1.35
| |
Argentina PD
|
34.51%
|
1.09
|
Scottish PFL
|
20.61%
|
1.33
| |
Persian Gulf PL
|
32.29%
|
1.07
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
18%
|
1.37
|
Let's compare the winning percentages between five years and two years.
Comparison of Win Percentage 5 Years vs. 2 Years
5 Years
|
Win %
|
2 Years
|
Win %
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
40.59%
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
41%
|
La Liga
|
38.57%
|
Scottish PFL
|
39.69%
|
Arabian Gulf
|
38%
|
English PL
|
38.75%
|
Bundesliga
|
38%
|
La Liga
|
38.35%
|
Scottish PFL
|
38%
|
Bundesliga
|
38%
|
J-League
|
38%
|
A-League
|
38%
|
A-League
|
37.58%
|
MLS
|
38%
|
Qatar SL
|
37.50%
|
J-League
|
37.58%
|
English PL
|
37.28%
|
Qatar SL
|
37%
|
Saudi PFL
|
37%
|
Arabian Gulf League
|
37%
|
MLS
|
37%
|
Saudi PFL
|
37%
|
FL Championship
|
36.30%
|
FL Championship
|
36%
|
Bundesliga 2
|
36%
|
Chinese SL
|
35.72%
|
Segunda Div.
|
36%
|
Segunda Div.
|
35.28%
|
K-League
|
36%
|
Bundesliga 2
|
35%
|
Chinese SL
|
35.50%
|
K-League
|
35%
|
Argentine PD
|
34.32%
|
Argentina PD
|
34.51%
|
Persian Gulf
|
32.90%
|
Persian Gulf PL
|
32.29%
|
The top and bottom team did not change. The K-League moved down one spot while the Chinese Super League jumped three up spots in winning percentage even though the gain in winning percentage was minimal. This seems to have more to do with other leagues than anything the Chinese Super League has done. Let's compare the percentage of draws for five years versus two years.
Comparison of the Percentage of Draws 5 Years vs. 2
Years
5 Years
|
Draw %
|
2 Years
|
Draw %
|
Persian Gulf
|
34.19%
|
Persian Gulf PL
|
35.41%
|
Argentine PD
|
31.34%
|
Argentina PD
|
30.96%
|
Chinese SL
|
29%
|
K-League
|
30%
|
K-League
|
28%
|
Bundesliga 2
|
30%
|
Segunda Div.
|
28%
|
Segunda Div.
|
29.43%
|
Bundesliga 2
|
28%
|
Chinese SL
|
28.54%
|
FL Championship
|
27.39%
|
FL Championship
|
28%
|
MLS
|
26%
|
Saudi PFL
|
26%
|
Saudi PFL
|
26%
|
Arabian Gulf League
|
26%
|
English PL
|
25.42%
|
Qatar SL
|
26%
|
Qatar SL
|
25%
|
J-League
|
24.83%
|
A-League
|
24.82%
|
MLS
|
24%
|
J-League
|
24%
|
A-League
|
24%
|
Scottish PFL
|
24%
|
Bundesliga
|
24%
|
Bundesliga
|
24%
|
La Liga
|
23.28%
|
Arabian Gulf
|
24%
|
English PL
|
22.50%
|
La Liga
|
22.84%
|
Scottish PFL
|
20.61%
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
18.80%
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
18%
|
As with wining percentage, not much really changed. What jumps out at me is how often games result in draws in the Persian Gulf League. Also, as you can see, K-League games now resulted in a draw 30% of the time, up from the 5 year average of 28%. Finally, let's compare the goal average for the last five years versus the last two years.
Comparison of the Goal Average 5 Years vs. 2 Years
5 Years
|
Avg.
|
2 Years
|
Avg.
|
Diff. (+/-)
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
1.35
|
Uzbekistan PFL
|
1.37
|
(+) .02
|
Scottish PFL
|
1.34
|
Scottish PFL
|
1.33
|
(-) .01
|
English PL
|
1.37
|
English PL
|
1.35
|
(-) .02
|
La Liga
|
1.38
|
La Liga
|
1.35
|
(-) .03
|
Bundesliga
|
1.46
|
Bundesliga
|
1.48
|
(+) .02
|
A-League
|
1.38
|
A-League
|
1.43
|
(+) .05
|
MLS
|
1.35
|
MLS
|
1.4
|
(+) .05
|
J-League
|
1.37
|
J-League
|
1.3
|
(-) .07
|
Qatar SL
|
1.5
|
Qatar SL
|
1.6
|
(+) .01
|
Arabian Gulf
|
1.64
|
Arabian Gulf League
|
1.56
|
(-) .08
|
Saudi PFL
|
1.45
|
Saudi PFL
|
1.44
|
(-) .01
|
FL Championship
|
1.33
|
FL Championship
|
1.32
|
(-) .01
|
Chinese SL
|
1.32
|
Chinese SL
|
1.39
|
(+) .07
|
Segunda Div.
|
1.28
|
Segunda Div.
|
1.26
|
(-) .02
|
Bundesliga 2
|
1.32
|
Bundesliga 2
|
1.2
|
(-) .12
|
K-League
|
1.24
|
K-League
|
1.15
|
(-) .09
|
Argentine PD
|
1.11
|
Argentina PD
|
1.09
|
(-) .02
|
Persian Gulf
|
1.14
|
Persian Gulf PL
|
1.07
|
(-) .07
|
There seems to be a general trend of less scoring in the last two years. Only six of the eighteen teams had a positive average goal differential, whereas twelve teams had a negative one. What does this mean? Who the hell knows or even cares? I just thought it might be of interest.
As I suspected, the Chinese Super League had the biggest increase in scoring while the Bundesliga 2, somewhat surprisingly, the decreased the most dramatically. The K-League had the second biggest reduction in goal average, falling from an already measly 1.24 goals per game to an even more paltry 1.15 goals a game. Hence, I suspect the reason behind the league office's decision to count goals scored rather than goal differential in deciding league positioning.
To sum up, the K-League has become very defensive in the last five years. Draws are up while scoring is down. In the last two years, the K-League has averaged around 30% of their games resulting in a draw. Therefore, the fact that Seoul was in third place in July of 2015 even though they had tied over 31% of their games should be no surprise.
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