[Recent News][6]

Classic
Challenge
FC Seoul
K-League Classic
Jeonbuk
K League Challenge
Jeonnam
Daejeon
AFC
Suwon
Busan
Daejeon Citizen
Seoul E-Land
Citizen
FA Cup
Incheon
Abroad
Transfers
Preview
Korean National Football Team
K League Classic
Gaming
Jeju
Gyeongnam
Ulsan
Football Manager
Daegu
Interview
Pohang Steelers
Suwon Bluewings
Seongnam FC
Suwon FC
Ansan
Anyang
FM2017
Gangwon
FIFA
Gwangju
Bucheon
Bucheon 1995
Featured
Sangju
Asan
FIFA16
Cup
Chungju
Goyang
World Cup
Club World Cup
K League All Star Game
K3
Russia 2020
TNTFC
playoffs

Part 2: Is 31% of games ending in a draw high?

(from en.prothom-alo.com)
Yesterday, I wrote about how the K-League compared to eighteen other leagues over the course of five years.  I looked at the K-League first and noticed that, from 2011 until 2015, that draws increased while goals decreased.  Then I looked at how the K-League compared to eighteen other leagues (9 from Asia, one from North America, one from South America, seven from Europe) and I found that teams that leagues that have more draws have a lower goal average than teams that win.  Unfortunately, the K-League was in the upper third of the table in draws while being in the lower third in wins and they only averaged 1.24 goals a game, which was the third lowest in all of the leagues.  Now I will look at the last two years.  Here is a link to the two year tables.



The last two years in the K-League have felt like a bit of a slog for FC Seoul.  Of course, much of that has been down to the departure of such key figures as Dejan, Ha Dae-sung, and Adi and it showed in 2014 as Seoul struggled to score goals.  If it was not for the mid season addition of Adriano, I think their goal tally would have been a lot less and their league position would have suffered for it.

Nonetheless, as the results will show, the league has become much more defensive as a whole.  I believe this is the result of conservative coaching philosophies, an exodus of quality players, and less diversity in the league.  Below  is a table of the results for the last two years of 18 leagues.  .  

League
Played
Wins (Pct.)
Draws (Pct.)
Losses (Pct.)
Goals (avg.)
K-League
912
318 (35%)
276 (30%)
318 (35%)
1052 (1.15)
Chinese SL
960
343 (35.72%)
274 (28.54%)
343 (35.72%)
1331 (1.39)
J-League
1224
460 (37.58%)
304 (24.83%)
460 (37.58%)
1594 (1.3)
A-League
540
204 (38%)
132 (24%)
204 (38%)
772 (1.43)
Saudi PFL
728
269 (37%)
190 (26%)
269 (37%)
1046 (1.44)
Persian Gulf PL
960
310 (32.29%)
340 (35.41%)
310 (32.29%)
1029 (1.07)
Arabian Gulf League
728
268 (37%)
188 (26%)
268 (37%)
1133 (1.56)
Uzbekistan PFL
844
347 (41%)
150 (18%)
347 (41%)
1157 (1.37)
Qatar SL
728
271 (37%)
186 (26%)
271 (37%)
1166 (1.6)
MLS
1326
502 (38%)
322 (24%)
502 (38%)
1861 (1.4)
Scottish PFL
912
362 (39.69%)
188 (20.61%)
362 (39.69%)
1213 (1.33)
English PL
1520
589 (38.75%)
342 (22.5%)
589 (38.75%)
2050 (1.35)
FL Championship
2208
790 (36%)
628 (28%)
790 (36%)
2908 (1.32)
Bundesliga
1224
466 (38%)
292 (24%)
466 (38%)
1810 (1.48)
Bundesliga 2
1224
427 (35%)
370 (30%)
427 (35%)
1548 (1.26)
La Liga
1520
583 (38.35%)
354 (23.28%)
583 (38.35%)
2054 (1.35)
Segunda Div.
1848
652 (35.28%)
544 (29.43%)
652 (35.28%)
2214 (1.2)
Argentina PD*
1660
573 (34.51%)
514 (30.96%)
573 (34.51%)
1803 (1.09)
Total
21066
7734 (36.71%)
5594 (26.55%)
7734 (36.71%)
27741 (1.32)
* 2014 was shortened (see tables), so I covered 2013-2014 and 2015.

Looking at the total averages, wins and the average number of goals is down slightly while draws are up.
  • In the last five years, the winning percentage was 37%, but in the last two years it is 36.71%.  
  • In the last five years, the percentage of draws was 26%, but in the last two years it is 26.55%.  
  • In the last five years, the average number of goals scored was 1.33, but in the last two years it is 1.32.   
Really though, the margins are minimal.  If I rounded everything up for the last two years, it would have been 101%, so that is why I have the two decimal places (ex: 26.55%).  Next, here is the table ranking the win percentage of the league and draw percentage of the league and next to that is the average number of goals for each league.


Year Comparison of Win Pct. And Draw Pct. Versus Avg. Goals

League
Win Pct.
Avg. Goal
League
Draw Pct.
Avg. Goal
Uzbekistan PFL
41%
1.37
Persian Gulf PL
35.41%
1.07
Scottish PFL
39.69%
1.33
Argentina PD
30.96%
1.09
English PL
38.75%
1.35
K-League
30%
1.15
La Liga
38.35%
1.35
Bundesliga 2
30%
1.2
Bundesliga
38%
1.48
Segunda Div.
29.43%
1.26
A-League
38%
1.43
Chinese SL
28.54%
1.39
MLS
38%
1.4
FL Championship
28%
1.32
J-League
37.58%
1.3
Saudi PFL
26%
1.44
Qatar SL
37%
1.6
Arabian Gulf League
26%
1.56
Arabian Gulf League
37%
1.56
Qatar SL
26%
1.6
Saudi PFL
37%
1.44
J-League
24.83%
1.3
FL Championship
36%
1.32
MLS
24%
1.4
Chinese SL
35.72%
1.39
A-League
24%
1.43
Segunda Div.
35.28%
1.26
Bundesliga
24%
1.48
Bundesliga 2
35%
1.2
La Liga
23.28%
1.35
K-League
35%
1.15
English PL
22.50%
1.35
Argentina PD
34.51%
1.09
Scottish PFL
20.61%
1.33
Persian Gulf PL
32.29%
1.07
Uzbekistan PFL
18%
1.37


Let's compare the winning percentages between five years and two years.  


Comparison of Win Percentage 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years
Win %
2 Years
Win %
Uzbekistan PFL
40.59%
Uzbekistan PFL
41%
La Liga
38.57%
Scottish PFL
39.69%
Arabian Gulf
38%
English PL
38.75%
Bundesliga
38%
La Liga
38.35%
Scottish PFL
38%
Bundesliga
38%
J-League
38%
A-League
38%
A-League
37.58%
MLS
38%
Qatar SL
37.50%
J-League
37.58%
English PL
37.28%
Qatar SL
37%
Saudi PFL
37%
Arabian Gulf League
37%
MLS
37%
Saudi PFL
37%
FL Championship
36.30%
FL Championship
36%
Bundesliga 2
36%
Chinese SL
35.72%
Segunda Div.
36%
Segunda Div.
35.28%
K-League
36%
Bundesliga 2
35%
Chinese SL
35.50%
K-League
35%
Argentine PD
34.32%
Argentina PD
34.51%
Persian Gulf
32.90%
Persian Gulf PL
32.29%

The top and bottom team did not change.  The K-League moved down one spot while the Chinese Super League jumped three up spots in winning percentage even though the gain in winning percentage was minimal.  This seems to have more to do with other leagues than anything the Chinese Super League has done.  Let's compare the percentage of draws for five years versus two years.

Comparison of the Percentage of Draws 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years
Draw %
2 Years
Draw %
Persian Gulf
34.19%
Persian Gulf PL
35.41%
Argentine PD
31.34%
Argentina PD
30.96%
Chinese SL
29%
K-League
30%
K-League
28%
Bundesliga 2
30%
Segunda Div.
28%
Segunda Div.
29.43%
Bundesliga 2
28%
Chinese SL
28.54%
FL Championship
27.39%
FL Championship
28%
MLS
26%
Saudi PFL
26%
Saudi PFL
26%
Arabian Gulf League
26%
English PL
25.42%
Qatar SL
26%
Qatar SL
25%
J-League
24.83%
A-League
24.82%
MLS
24%
J-League
24%
A-League
24%
Scottish PFL
24%
Bundesliga
24%
Bundesliga
24%
La Liga
23.28%
Arabian Gulf
24%
English PL
22.50%
La Liga
22.84%
Scottish PFL
20.61%
Uzbekistan PFL
18.80%
Uzbekistan PFL
18%

As with wining percentage, not much really changed.  What jumps out at me is how often games result in draws in the Persian Gulf League.  Also, as you can see, K-League games now resulted in a draw 30% of the time, up from the 5 year average of 28%.  Finally, let's compare the goal average for the last five years versus the last two years.

Comparison of the Goal Average 5 Years vs. 2 Years

5 Years
Avg.
2 Years
Avg.
Diff. (+/-)
Uzbekistan PFL
1.35
Uzbekistan PFL
1.37
(+) .02
Scottish PFL
1.34
Scottish PFL
1.33
(-) .01
English PL
1.37
English PL
1.35
(-) .02
La Liga
1.38
La Liga
1.35
(-) .03
Bundesliga
1.46
Bundesliga
1.48
(+) .02
A-League
1.38
A-League
1.43
(+) .05
MLS
1.35
MLS
1.4
(+) .05
J-League
1.37
J-League
1.3
(-) .07
Qatar SL
1.5
Qatar SL
1.6
(+) .01
Arabian Gulf
1.64
Arabian Gulf League
1.56
(-) .08
Saudi PFL
1.45
Saudi PFL
1.44
(-) .01
FL Championship
1.33
FL Championship
1.32
(-) .01
Chinese SL
1.32
Chinese SL
1.39
(+) .07
Segunda Div.
1.28
Segunda Div.
1.26
(-) .02
Bundesliga 2
1.32
Bundesliga 2
1.2
(-) .12
K-League
1.24
K-League
1.15
(-) .09
Argentine PD
1.11
Argentina PD
1.09
(-) .02
Persian Gulf
1.14
Persian Gulf PL
1.07
(-) .07

There seems to be a general trend of less scoring in the last two years.  Only six of the eighteen teams had a positive average goal differential, whereas twelve teams had a negative one.  What does this mean?  Who the hell knows or even cares?  I just thought it might be of interest.

As I suspected, the Chinese Super League had the biggest increase in scoring while the Bundesliga 2, somewhat surprisingly, the decreased the most dramatically.  The K-League had the second biggest reduction in goal average, falling from an already measly 1.24 goals per game to an even more paltry 1.15 goals a game.  Hence, I suspect the reason behind the league office's decision to count goals scored rather than goal differential in deciding league positioning.

To sum up, the K-League has become very defensive in the last five years.  Draws are up while scoring is down.  In the last two years, the K-League has averaged around 30% of their games resulting in a draw.   Therefore, the fact that Seoul was in third place in July of 2015 even though they had tied over 31% of their games should be no surprise.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Start typing and press Enter to search

Featured